Platinum Group Metals

Platinum

  • The platinum market was in surplus by 285,000 oz in 2009. Gross demand fell by 11.9% to 7.04 million oz. Supplies fell by 0.3% to 5.92 million oz. Platinum recovery from recycling dropped 23.2% to 1.41 million.
  • Gross autocatalyst demand for platinum decreased by 39.0% to a nine‐year low of 2.23 million oz in 2009 with European demand particularly weak.
  • Gross demand for platinum from the jewellery sector climbed by 950,000 oz to a total of 3.01 million oz in 2009 due to strong growth in the Chinese market.
  • Industrial demand for platinum weakened by 33.7% to a total of 1.14 million oz in 2009.
  • Identifiable physical investment demand rose by 18.9% to 660,000 oz in 2009 due to strong ETF investment.

Outlook

  • Platinum expected to be closer to balance in 2010
  • Gross platinum demand to strengthen in the automotive sector but weaken in China’s jewellery market.
  •  Supplies of platinum to increase in 2010 although constraining factors continue to exist in South African production.
  • Platinum expected to trade between $1,600 and $2,000 during the next six months.

Palladium

  • Palladium was in surplus by 760,000 oz during 2009. Gross demand fell by 6.3% to 7.77 million oz. Supplies of palladium dropped by 2.9% to 7.10 million oz. Palladium recovery from recycling fell by 11.5% to 1.43 million oz.
  • Gross automotive sector demand for palladium fell by 9.3% to 4.05 million oz in 2009 with demand growing in China but falling elsewhere.
  • Gross palladium jewellery demand fell by 17.3% to 815,000 oz in 2009 due to weaker Chinese output.
  • Gross industrial demand for palladium (including dental demand) decreased by 5.8% to 2.28 million oz in 2009.
  • Net annual identifiable physical investment demand for palladium increased by 48.8% to 625,000 oz last year.

Outlook

  • Palladium forecast to be in smaller surplus during 2010.
  • Gross demand for palladium set to rise due to stronger physical investment and some recovery in the automotive sector.
  • Palladium production from current mining likely to rise. Further Russian state stock sales expected.
  • Palladium expected to trade between $475 and $700 during the next six months.

Other PGMs

  • Rhodium was in oversupply by 241,000 oz in 2009, compared to a surplus of 25,000 oz in 2008.
  • Gross rhodium demand fell by 20.2% to 716,000 oz due to weak automotive purchasing.
  • Recovery of rhodium from spent autocatalysts decreased by 17.6% to 187,000 oz in 2009.
  • Supplies of rhodium increased by 10.8% in 2009 to an annual total of 770,000 oz.
  • Ruthenium demand declined for the third successive year, falling by 17.9% to 574,000 oz in 2009.
  • Iridium demand also fell for the third successive year in 2009, decreasing by 10.8% to 91,000 oz.